South Africa’s 2024 Elections: A Snapshot

A particular energy surrounds the upcoming elections, a simultaneous intake and exhalation of breath taken by the country - for some, at the possibilities May 29 represents, and to others, at a resigned disbelief that anything will change for the better.

The optimists do not mince their words: the newly-established Rise Mzansi party has as its slogan the daring ‘2024 is the new 1994’ - spokesperson Tebogo Moalusi explaining that the elections offer a significant opportunity for renewal and regrowth, for confronting a country which had failed to uphold its democratic dream post-1994. The Democratic Alliance, too, stated in a recent advertisement that ‘this election is about survival’, over footage of a burning South African flag.

There are reasons for believing in this election’s significance: from the record-high 27 million eligible to cast votes; a first-time inclusion of independent candidates on the ballot; to the currently-ruling ANC’s less-than-majority poll lead as elections approach (which, if reflected in election results, would be the first hung parliament experienced by the historically dominant party); to the coalition which would likely arise should the ANC fail to maintain over 50% of the vote - a shift in power seems inevitable. What concessions and agreements will be made under a coalition (whether ad hoc or formal) remains to be seen, but the ANC’s predicted loss of majority will in any case upturn the current balance of power in the country.

More regional battles are expected: the ANC secured a narrow majority of 50.19% in the provincial ballot for Gauteng in 2019 (down from 53.59% in 2014), which - if this decline continues into 2024 - suggests again the possibility of a coalition. The newly-formed uMkhonto weSizwe (abbreviated as MK) also poses a threat to other parties’ support bases, although figurehead Jacob Zuma’s recently-confirmed parliament ineligibility may disrupt the group’s upward rise. As many things, MK’s potential successes are difficult to predict.

In opposition to these proclamations of drastic change (made often by international outlets such as The Guardian or AP News), there are others more pessimistic. While voter registration levels are at a historic high, the number of eligible voters who have chosen not to vote is at an estimated 13 million - also an increase over past years. Voter turnout, too, has been dipping significantly over time, from around 86,87% in 1994 to 45,86% in 2021’s local elections, and little to indicate a reversal of this shift. 

Low voter participation is not the only problem. While a coalition government may be used by included parties to fight for much-needed change, it also may do very little. Stagnation of support for opposition (non-ANC) parties has been observed, promising perhaps increased inter-party fighting and fracturing to gain a greater share of the pie, leading further thus to an incoherent and nonviable alternative to the ANC - meaning that parties will be far more likely to capitulate and settle for very little, joining a coalition with the ANC and settling for very few policy compromises. If you can’t beat them, join them.

South Africa’s steadily decay - increasing unemployment, failure of State-Owned Enterprises, and persistently high crime rates - in contrast to hope inspired for the country’s future at apartheid’s closing paints a necessary conclusion: that 2024’s elections, just like past apparently significant ones, will do very little for the country. It is hardly a strong argument, of course, to claim that the future will be similar to the past, that decline will be followed by further decline - but society’s belief in a state only goes so far. 

Ultimately, as cliché as it sounds, the power is in the people’s hands. Those who have registered have the ability to pick suitable (or, depending on your viewpoint, the lesser of many evils) leaders to serve us for the next five years, and alter - for better or worse - the country’s future. The buck - as decolonial theorist Sylvia Wynter is so fond of saying - stops with us.

GorStra Research Group will follow the results of 2024 elections.