Madagascar’s Elections: A Troubling Trend?

On Saturday the 25th of November, it was announced that Madagascar’s current president, Andry Rajoelina, has been elected for a third term in office. The incumbent leader won 59% of the vote, trailed by Siteny Randrianasoloniaiko (with 14%) and the ousted ex-president Marc Ravalomanana (with 12%). 

This result is in spite of widespread boycotts and protests by opposition candidates, claiming irregularities in the electoral process. The legitimacy of an election which saw record-low turnout from voters - only 46% of Madagascans cast their vote - was also cast into doubt by Rajoelina’s rivals. 

Complaints were made against Rajoelina’s acquisition of French citizenship in 2014: opposition parties claim that this should strip him of his Madagascan citizenship, and disqualify him from running. Further issues were raised regarding closed polling stations, and usage of state funds by Rajoelina to further his own campaign. Randrianasoloniaiko, the foremost opposition candidate, has recently filed a lawsuit disputing election results, claiming fraud and manipulation by the electoral commission in favour of Rajoelina.

The weeks leading up to the election were punctuated by background violence protesting perceived irregularities and electoral failings. Crowds gathered to protest against Rajoelina’s regime were frequently dispersed via tear gas and batons. Additionally, torching of some polling booths in the country was observed, causing a delay in the election itself. 

The election is due to be certified by the Constitutional Court nine days after the result’s announcement. The Southern African Development Community (SADC), a prominent regional political organisation, has also committed to commenting on the legitimacy of the electoral process, the conclusion of which is yet to be published. 

The importance of this election and verification by independent bodies (particularly SADC) should not be understated. African elections have been marred in recent years by unrest, violence, and concerns regarding electoral transparency and fairness. Trends towards authoritarianism, and repression of democratic rule, have been observed within the continent for decades, punctuated sporadically by ‘waves’ of democracy. Egypt, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and others have faced threats to free and fair multi-party elections in recent years: this is no less true for Madagascar. Since independence from France, the country has experienced multiple coups and undemocratic transfers of power, the most recent of which was organised by the incumbent Rajoelina. 

Depending on SADC’s findings concerning election fairness and transparency, legitimation could be lent to either the opposition or the incumbent Rajoelina. Evidence presented of electoral manipulation will likely bolster movements against Rajoelina’s regime (potentially reigniting protests throughout the country) - an occurrence observed in Zimbabwe this year, after SADC noted some failures in the electoral process. 

The case of Zimbabwe perhaps proves useful to predicting the future of Madagascar’s own electoral process. Despite Zimbabwe’s elections falling short of some SADC guidelines, incumbent president Emmerson Mnangagwa was elected for a second term in office. Formal lawsuits regarding election manipulation were not pursued, however, in contrast to Randrianasoloniaiko’s own case, with Zimbabwean opposition citing a judicial system they believed had been ‘captured’. Many SADC member states, despite official conclusions, chose to recognize the results of Zimbabwe’s election, signifying a deep divide within the organisation itself.

The inability of Southern African states to support free and fair democratic processes for their neighbours may prove to be a worrying trend for the region, if it hopes to advertise itself to the world as an institutionally and democratically mature zone. Culpability and responsibility of leaders may wane, too, if avenues for their removal from office are closed. 

Whatever the result of the election, it is likely that ordinary citizens will be left with significant problems, in a country struggling with high levels of poverty and an increasing frequency of climate shocks. One Madagascan commented: ‘Whoever is re-elected, our life will be the same, we’ll stay among the beggars’. 

Photo Credits: RIJASOLO/AFP via Getty Images | Edited by GorStra Team