The Geopolitical Implications of the Bangladesh Elections
The upcoming general election in Bangladesh, scheduled for January 7, 2024, carry significant geopolitical implications as the South Asian nation prepares for a pivotal political transition. 2024 will mark a rare occurrence as three major nations of South Asia - India, Pakistan and Bangladesh - head for general elections. Despite questions over democratic backsliding, India is likely to see free and fair elections and there is a good possibility that incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi will continue to hold power for a third term. There is also a very high chance that Bangladesh’s Sheikh Hasina will see her fifth term as Prime Minister, however the focus on Bangladesh's electoral process has intensified due to historical controversies, allegations of manipulation, and the involvement of major international players in shaping the country's political landscape.
Bangladesh's political landscape is dominated by the ruling Awami League (AL), led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Despite winning the past three consecutive elections, the legitimacy of these victories has been questioned, with allegations of unfair practices and electoral manipulation. Principal opposition parties are now planning to boycott the upcoming elections, labelling them ‘farcical.’ The leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the principal opposition party, Khaleda Zia is currently under house arrest, with her political party complaining that they are not being allowed to campaign freely in the streets. The BNP has also been vocal in its demands for a caretaker government to oversee the elections, citing concerns about the impartiality of the electoral process, however this has been rejected by Hasina’s government.
On the ground, there is political turmoil in Bangladesh. The country has witnessed immense economic growth over the past two decades and is even predicted to be the second fastest growing economy globally from 2021-2025, yet there have been a number of protests against inflation. Violence erupted recently when garment factory workers took to the streets demanding a hike in their living wages, with police fire killing at least three protestors over the span of two weeks. These protests had been supported by both the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist political party. Rejecting their demands, Hasina’s response prompted one union leader to claim that the PM had created a “climate of fear.”
The upcoming elections have attracted the attention of global powers, particularly the United States and the European Union. Criticism of Hasina's policies and accusations of an authoritarian shift have prompted international interventions, including the imposition of visa restrictions by the US Department of State on individuals allegedly undermining the democratic process in Bangladesh. On October 31st, US Ambassador to Bangladesh Peter Haas stated that “Any action that undermines the democratic elections process – including violence, preventing people from exercising their right to peaceful assembly, and internet access – calls into question the ability to conduct free and fair elections.”
Furthermore, on November 14th, three UN experts expressed concerns about media freedom, stating that they were “deeply disturbed by the sharp rise in political violence, arrests of senior opposition leaders, mass arbitrary detention of thousands of political activists, use of excessive force by the authorities and internet shutdowns to disrupt protests, and allegations of harassment, intimidation and unlawful detention of family members as a retaliatory measure.”
Moreover, the European Union has also stated that it will not deploy a full election observer team to Bangladesh, due to a lack of “necessary conditions”, citing budgetary constraints and concerns over the current political climate in Bangladesh. This marks a clear indication of how the international community perceives the state of democracy in the country.
The US has been actively engaged in shaping the narrative surrounding Bangladesh's elections, leading to geopolitical tensions. While the US claims to be impartial and concerned about the overall democratic process, objections from both allies like India and rivals like China and Russia suggest a divergence in perspectives. India, as Bangladesh's closest ally, has declared the upcoming elections as the country's 'internal matter.' Despite calls from the BNP for India to intervene in support of democracy, New Delhi has remained supportive of Sheikh Hasina's government. This regional alignment further adds complexity to the geopolitical landscape, influencing how neighbouring countries perceive and respond to the developments in Bangladesh. China and Russia, who between them have numerous geostrategic interests in Bangladesh, are also backing the incumbent government, with Russia condemning the US’ actions as ‘interference’ in Bangladesh’s internal affairs and Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accusing Haas of orchestrating an anti-government rally in Dhaka.
The geopolitical implications of the upcoming elections in Bangladesh are multifaceted, involving a delicate balance between domestic concerns and international interventions. The scrutiny from major global players, particularly the US and the European Union, coupled with regional dynamics, is likely to shape the post-election narrative and influence the geopolitical landscape in South Asia. As Bangladesh approaches this crucial juncture, the international community will closely monitor the electoral process and its aftermath, anticipating potential shifts in alliances and power dynamics in the region.