India’s Recent Diplomatic Fallout with Canada

Since September 2023, Canada and India have been engaged in a public tit-for-tat, increasing  diplomatic tensions between the two nations.

On September 18th, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stoked the feud by claiming that Canadian intelligence agencies were "pursuing credible allegations of a potential link" between Indian government agents and the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh separatist shot outside a Gurudwara in Surrey, on June 18th  2023. Amidst India’s sustained rejection of the accusations and Canada’s insistence that they possess evidence which cannot be made public due to the need to protect sensitive intelligence sources and methods, there have been diplomatic expulsions on both sides. India has suspended all visa applications for Canadians and trade talks between the two countries have been halted.

India has long been critical of Canada’s lenient approach towards Khalistani separatists, hate speech and threats in Canada. In April and August of 2023, for instance, Hindu temples in Canada’s British Columbia and Ontario were vandalized by alleged Khalistani elements and, as of yet, only one suspect has been arrested.

The Khalistan movement, which advocates for the establishment of an ethno-religious sovereign state for Sikhs in the Punjab region, began in the 1940s, blooming into an insurgency by the 1980s. In 1984, Operation Blue Star, an operation by the Indian Armed Forces to crackdown on Sikh separatism, saw upwards of 400 Sikhs killed in Amritsar’s Golden Temple, leading to the retaliatory assassination of the then Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by her Sikh bodyguards. This, in turn, triggered The Anti-Sikh riots, a series of organized pogroms which are estimated to have killed between 8,000 to 17,0000 Sikhs. 

Since  1984, the Indian government has continued to crackdown on Khalistani militants, with the current BJP government, which views secessionism as highly incompatible with its nationalistic agenda, presenting the movement as a  threat to national security. Despite support for the Khalistan movement largely dissipating within Punjab, amongst Canada’s Sikh population, the largest Sikh population outside of India, support for the Khalistan movement has always been strong, which has been a bone of contention for India. Following Trudeau’s visit to India in September 2023 for the G20 Summit, India had issued a statement voicing "strong concerns about continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements in Canada" who are "promoting secessionism and inciting violence against Indian diplomats, damaging diplomatic premises, and threatening the Indian community in Canada and their places of worship". Mr Trudeau, however, asserted that Canada would always defend "freedom of expression" while acting against hatred.

Nijjar, born in Jalandhar, Punjab, had lived in Canada for over 25 years at the time of his death and had been running a plumbing company in Surrey, British Columbia. President of the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara, Surrey, and involved in the Khalistani movement, he was designated an “individual terrorist” by India under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) in July 2020, having been accused by the Indian State of being involved in multiple targeted killings in Punjab, and for being associated with designated terror groups banned in India.  Two Interpol Red Corner Notices were also issued against him in 2014 and 2016 at the request of the Indian government, the first accusing him of being a "mastermind/active member" of Khalistan Tiger Force and the second accusing him of being a "mastermind and key conspirator of many terrorist acts in India”, conspiring to kill "Hindu leaders" and claiming that he was running a Sikh terrorist training camp near Mission, British Columbia. Canada, however, did not charge Nijjar for any crimes despite taking him in briefly for questioning in 2018, and, according to his son, had alerted him via the Canadian Security Intelligence Service of a likely assassination plot against him in the weeks before his death. 

Having been accused of carrying out a targeted killing and violating the sovereignty of a Western middle power, India’s international reputation has suffered a blow, prompting questions around its commitment to democracy, its relations with Canada going forward and its relations with the other Western nations that it has forged strategic partnerships with due to its status as a geopolitical counterweight to China. Further tarnishing India’s reputation following the accusations has also been its aggressive response, lambasting Canada for making absurd and politically motivated allegations against the Government of India. In response to Canada expelling a top Indian diplomat who is reported to have been involved in Indian intelligence, India expelled a Canadian diplomat in a tit-for-tat move, stating: “The decision reflects Government of India’s growing concern at the interference of Canadian diplomats in our internal matters and their involvement in anti-India activities.” In a further counterstroke, after Canada revised its travel advisory for India, urging citizens to “exercise a high degree of caution”, India revised its travel advisory for Canada warning Indian nationals in Canada to “exercise utmost caution” due to threats targeting “Indian diplomats and sections of the Indian community who oppose the anti-India agenda.” India then went on to suspend all visa applications for Canadians and requested that the Canadian High Commission in New Delhi be downsized, due to a lack of “parity” between the two countries’ missions.

It may be the case that Canada’s condemnation of the murder of a Khalistan supporter may be seen as a form of support to the Khalistan movement, emboldening radicals. On September 20th, , for instance, Gurpatwant Pannun, leader of radical Sikhs For Justice (SFJ), posted a video asserting that Indo-Canadian Hindus should leave Canada. Despite Canada’s denouncement of the video, such threats have created an atmosphere of fear and tension among Hindus in Canada who fear Khalistan radicals may become more virulent towards the Hindu community. 

On the international stage, India’s Western allies, like the US and Australia, have not been overly critical of India’s alleged actions in Canada, their Five Eyes (FVEY) alliance partner. They have, however, raised concerns over the allegations, urging India to cooperate with Canada’s investigations. This may be viewed within India as another attempt by the West to undermine the South Asian nation. 

Considering that India, which has invested considerably in soft power strategies and image boosting since Modi’s ascension to power, has now been placed onto a list of countries, like Russia and Saudi Arabia, suspected of carrying out extraterrestrial targeted killings, it will become clearer in the coming months whether the government intends to invest in a more zealous face saving campaign to try to recover or restore its status as a friendly player on the world stage or whether it will double down in its hostile approach towards Western nations. India’s nationalist BJP government’s increasing criticism of the West’s approach towards the Global South over the past year does, however, seem to imply the latter.Ultimately, should the allegations against India be true, whether this is only one of many more forceful intelligence operations for India going forward is yet to be seen.