Is Climate Diplomacy the way forward for countries like Pakistan?
It exceeded Pakistani politicians and diplomats’ expectations in January 2023 when international donors, meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, committed to over $9 billion in aid for the country ravaged by floods of 2022. These floods have added to Pakistan’s ever growing economic woes and inflation problems and thus the fund support from multiple countries and banks like the Islamic Development Bank and the World Bank displayed a new form of philanthropy where poor countries could rely on richer ones for assistance. This has happened because a number of industrially advanced nations have realised the repercussions of climate change on vulnerable nations. While there have been instances of financial aid to countries affected by natural disasters, the Pakistan flood was seen by many as a direct result of climate change and there has been an acknowledgment of its ill-effects on poorer nations. As research shows, by 2030, developing countries will suffer losses of up to $580 billion in annual climate change-related damages.
According to a report in the Carbon Brief, Pakistan’s floods were a result of higher than usual monsoon rainfall which was “likely increased” by climate change. The study found that between June-August 2022, “Pakistan received nearly 190% more rain than its 30-year average.” The flood has destroyed over 1.7m homes, and has lead to hundreds dying. The study claimed that in the future, with a 2 °C warmer climate than preindustrial times, the rainfall intensity will “significantly increase”.
It was because of this impact that the UN Secretary-General António Guterres called the monsoon to be “on steroids”. He also called for a “collective action to help the Government & people of Pakistan in their hour of need.” By that he meant that Pakistan should receive financial assistance to help its people cope with the floods which are likely to have ecological problems for the next many years.
And the world did respond with funds and other forms of support. As the news of the fund promise came in after the Geneva meet, there were many who saw this as an example of geopolitics where countries affected by climate change could utilise the goodwill and sense of responsibility for their diplomatic presence in the world. Already, Pakistan has been asking for a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the Pakistani rupee witnesses devaluation and there is an energy crisis. As a nuclear power, Pakistan’s stability is important for many countries, including the U.S. which has displayed a dismissive attitude to the country since the U.S.’s exit from Pakistan’s neighbourhood in Afghanistan.
The flood has allowed Pakistan to gain sympathy on the world stage. With multiple climate groups protesting regularly in developed nations to act against the use of fossil fuels or to control excessive industrialisation, many of these countries look to climate diplomacy as a bulwark against the criticism they face from its domestic audience. Protests, like the October 2022 agitation in France, have erupted in countries where the public has been suffering from government policies or want their respective governments to have a more sustainable environment policy in place. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Climate Protest Tracker is an indication of how protests have become common around the world as the strain on the environment has vocalised populations and they have found a way to pressurise their respective governments to avoid activities and policies which may have adverse impact on the environment. These protests also show that the wider public is now educated enough to associate the blame of climate change on industrialised nations and their development activities.
In such a scenario, countries like Pakistan look to gain sympathy and some form of geopolitical support. Pakistan has been using its flood disaster to gain a niche audience in the world and is playing on the fact that it is, rightfully so, a victim of the global climate change disaster. Some in Pakistan have called the Pakistani establishment to make itself a representative of countries affected by climate change and ask for repatriation from high carbon emitting nations. If that is to happen then Pakistan can sustain its always faltering economy through support and funds from international donors, and also play a strategic role both in its region and beyond.
Currently, Pakistan is witnessing a near state collapse, with the economy in doldrums and the internal politics in strife. Around this time, the Pakistan Prime Minister has reached out to countries like the U.S. and even rivals India, for a positive restart of relations. While the U.S.’s response to Pakistan has been muted, India has refused any sustained talks for now, there is likely to be a thawing in the relationship as both countries share similar environmental concerns and impending effects of climate change. So while Pakistan hopes to renew its diplomacy and its presence on the world stage as a victim of climate change, it perhaps needs to do more to build allies; especially in its neighbourhood where Pakistan is now embroiled in a public spat with the Taliban government in Afghanistan.
Original Image Credits: Ali Hyder Junejo — Edited by GorStra Team