The India-China Border clash and its possible impact on the RIC group
In what seems like a culmination of months of tension at the always fragile peace at the Indo-China borders, Indian and Chinese troops reportedly clashed in Tawang in the Indian North-Eastern State of Arunachal Pradesh on December 9th. Speaking on December 13th at the Indian Parliament, the Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh confirmed the scuffle at the borders in which Indian troops pushed the Chinese back to their positions. He clarified that the news on social media about death and injury of Indian soldiers were not correct when he said that “none of our troops either died or were injured.” The minister said that the issue was raised on a diplomatic level with the Chinese after the incident. This confrontation was one of the few such border skirmishes to have taken place between India and China in the past few years; notably including the 2020-21 Galwan Valley clash where a few soldiers lost their lives. Both countries have a history of diplomatic disputes such as the war in 1962 as well as more recent border issues, for example China’s claim that Arunachal Pradesh is part of South Tibet. Tawang is a significant region as it has an important Tibetan Buddhist monastery, and is essential for China in order to keep an eye on the next Dalai Lama.
While the incident on December 9th was predominantly hand-to-hand combat with no firearms, this clash sheds a negative light on Russia, India, and China’s trilateral strong front (RIC). The RIC was created to reduce US unipolarity while the three nations continued to develop their own respective relations with the US.
Seen by many as a potential for a new world order, the trilateral is already under threat from India and China’s relationship. Despite that, the three countries continue to cooperate as evidenced by their choice to abstain from a UN Resolution demanding an end of violence in Myanmar on December 21st 2022. India’s Permanent Representative to the UN Ambassador Ruchira Kamboj explained that “quiet and patient diplomacy” was needed to resolve the issue with Myanmar.
For many US-based policymakers and analysts, India’s abstinence is indicative of their support for their RIC ally, Russia. Moreover, India abstained from the majority of resolutions condemning Russian actions in Ukraine. Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar repeatedly called for a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine issue. Meanwhile, India continues to import cheap oil from Russia. India-Russia relations go back to the Cold War and has strengthened under the RIC. However, the strain from India-China relations deteriorating could cause Russia to distance itself from the trilateral. This is in response to the threat of India getting closer to the US under Quad, a quadrilateral dialogue between India, Japan, Australia and the US, in an attempt to counter China.
But peace and alliance could be short-lived due to India’s tensions with China. The clash at the border is likely to have a negative impact on the RIC. India has “beefed” up troops at the Sino-India border and is conversing with China on a diplomatic level. The troubles with China have had other impacts. US-India relations, for instance, have improved significantly since the US decision to put its relations with Pakistan in cold storage after the US movement out of Afghanistan in August 2021. It is clear that military confrontation between India and China is something the US is not keen on but wants the tension to remain without any violence. This is evident from the Pentagon press briefing on December 13 where the Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder stated that they expect India to de-escalate the situation at the border.
It is not unlikely that China could increase its efforts at the borders to pressurise India; leading to a tense South Asian region and problems for India in its Northern borders.The US is hoping that this incident and the Galwan clash will prompt India to reconsider its place in the RIC and move closer to the Quad and US’s Indo-Pacific plans. This could completely change the diplomatic trajectory of India and bring a new level of animosity between India and China as the latter has often looked at India’s proximity to the US with suspicion.