IAEA Reports of High Uranium Enrichment in Iran: Near Nuclear Bomb Levels
Highly enriched uranium particles have recently been found at a nuclear facility known as the Fordow plant in Iran. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), a United Nations agency based in Vienna, has recently reported a discovery of uranium particles enriched up to 83.7% purity in Iran – which is close to the 90% enrichment levels required to quickly produce weapons-grade material such as nuclear bombs. Tensions are escalating between Iran and the West, with a top US Defense Department official warning that Iran could now potentially produce “one bomb’s worth of fissile material” in just 12 days instead of 12 months. Iran’s breakout time, i.e., the amount of time it would need to produce enough weapons-grade material for one nuclear bomb has significantly decreased since the Trump administration withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal in 2018.
A deal formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), reached between Iran and several world powers, including the US in July 2015, aimed at preventing Iran from resuming its nuclear weapon program, shut down in 2003 and thereby reducing potential conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, including Israel and Saudi Arabia. As a brief recap of what the deal entailed, Iran agreed to reduce its capacity to build a nuclear bomb by reducing its number of centrifuges, i.e., tube-shaped machines that help enrich uranium and allow access to inspectors from the IAEA to its nuclear facilitates in exchange for lifting economic sanctions against Tehran.
Iran was living up to its end of the bargain, by not enriching uranium beyond 3.67% which is enough to power a nuclear power plant used for civilian purposes, thus leading to the lifting of sanctions in 2016. However, the situation changed when the Trump administration decided to withdraw, arguing "the Iran deal is defective at its core" due to its sunset clauses, meaning that the restrictions have an expiration date. This in turn resulted in an increased interest and pursuit by Iran to openly enrich uranium from 3.67% to 60% purity since early 2021, a radical increase that goes way beyond the 20% purity level, i.e., the considered high enriched uranium purity level.
With this new discovery of uranium enrichment up to 83.7%, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has previously advocated military action against Iran, similar to the one Israel adopted against nuclear faculties in Syria and Iraq is currently threatening to follow through with this military action against Iran. According to Netanyahu, "a necessary condition, and an often sufficient condition, is credible military action. The longer you wait, the harder that becomes. We’ve waited very long." This "shadow war" between Iran and Israel could increase the likelihood of regional conflicts, adding to the current political turmoil, and energy insecurity, and posing a threat to the international world order.
Earlier this month, IAEA’s Director General Rafael Mariano Rossi, warned of the risk of Iran producing "several" nuclear bombs due to the current amount of uranium it now holds, something Iran has denied by insisting its program is aimed at peaceful purposes. Moreover, Iran seems to have responded to reports regarding the 83.7% uranium enrichment discovery, through Nour News, a website linked to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stating that it "was an inspector’s error or was a deliberate action to create political atmosphere against Iran on the eve of the meeting of the Board of Governors". Iranian officials have further communicated that the discovery of these particles does not in itself mean Iran is actively enriching beyond the declared 60% level.
The US, under President Joe Biden, and Iran have resumedindirect negotiations to try and restore the Iran nuclear deal. However, negotiations broke down in late 2022 and reached a standstill due to the current global political climate, in which Iran is supporting and supplying Russia with drones against Ukraine. Tensions are high but have not impeded the IAEA’s director-general’s visit to Iran on the 3rd and 4th of March to address the safeguard issues and holdconstructive talks with Iran regarding the recent discovery. One crucialtakeaway worth highlighting is that Iran seems to have agreed to allow the IAEA to "implement further appropriate verification and monitoring activities". This decision is a step in the right direction, however, given the latest developments and the current fragile political landscape, it is necessary to remain cautious to prevent further escalation.