Iran-Afghanistan: The Risk of a Water War

On May 27, heavy gunfire broke out between Iranian forces and Taliban troops deployed on either side of the border, resulting in the deaths of two Iranian border guards and one Taliban fighter, according to a Taliban spokesman and Iranian state media. Several other people were wounded in this incident, with each side blaming the other for opening fire. 

This situation occurred against the backdrop of tensions between Iran and Afghanistan over water rights, as both countries are heavily impacted by climate change. A few days earlier, on May 18, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi called on Afghanistan to allow water from the Helmand River to flow into Iran, as the southeast region is suffering from an unprecedented drought. He declared his government's determination to defend Iran's water rights and warned the Taliban that he "will not allow the rights of Iranian people to be violated". He urged them to take his words “seriously” and “not complain afterwards”. 

The Helmand River, which is 1,150 km long, originates in central Afghanistan, crosses the border, and irrigates large tracts of farmland in the Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchistan. In an attempt to resolve their decades-long dispute over water allocation, Tehran and Kabul signed a treaty in 1973, granting Iran the right to use 26 cubic meters of water per second. According to Iran, this quota has not been respected.

Drought in Iran, which has been a problem for decades, has significantly worsened in recent years, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. Almost 97% of the country is affected by some level of drought. The drought is particularly severe in the Sistan-Baluchistan region, where Lake Hamun, fed by the Helmand River, has dried up from its position at the heart of the world's 7th largest wetland. Around the lake, flora and fauna, agriculture and livestock, as well as villages have all disappeared, leaving behind a desolate landscape. 

Water is also a precious resource on the Afghan side, as it irrigates agricultural fields in a country in crisis where the food issue is crucial. Since regaining control of the country in August 2021, the Taliban, in their quest for legitimacy, aims to regain control of the Helmand River and promote a redistribution of water in favor of their own population, to the detriment of Iran. The previous Afghan government had accused Tehran of encouraging instability around Afghan dam sites by supporting armed groups,notably the Taliban, in order to obtain a larger share of water. Afghanistan's determination to regain control of its hydropower potential is reflected in the construction of hydroelectric dams and irrigation systems, such as the Kamal Khan dam, opened in 2021 after six decades of work, and has become a major point of tension with its neighbor. 

However, water is not the only source of tension between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. This renewed tension is also the result of an accumulation of disagreements between the two regimes since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021. Already in December 2021, there had been clashes on their borders and several reports of mistreatment by the Iranian regime of Afghan refugees on their territory. According to an Amnesty International report, at least 11 Afghans have been killed, and many others tortured. 

The religious aspect is also important. Both countries have Islamist regimes, but Iran's Islamic Revolution relies on the country's Shiite majority, while the Taliban are Sunni, mostly from the Pashtun ethnic group. The religious schism doesn't explain everything, far from it, but it shouldn't be ignored either. In recent weeks, Taliban propaganda videos against the Iranian regime have described Shiite leaders as infidels and threatened to attack them as far away as Tehran. In the past, the Taliban have regularly been accused of attacking other minorities in Afghanistan, in particular the Hazaras, the majority of whom are Shiite.

Another ongoing source of conflict is that Iran still does not officially recognize the Taliban regime, although it does maintain more or less direct relations with Afghanistan's new rulers.

However, all this has to be put into perspective because it is in neither country's interest to allow tensions to continue. The Iranian regime is weakened from within by a wave of protests and unprecedented disobedience since the 1979 revolution, while Afghanistan is just emerging from over 40 years of continuous war. Iran needs a stable Afghanistan, and the new Afghan regime prefers to have a non-threatening, economically cooperative neighbor.  

Since their return to power, the Taliban have sought to curry favor with Tehran, a major trading partner. In this diplomatic game, they use water as a bargaining chip in negotiations. In January 2022, following a visit by their Foreign Minister, the Taliban decided to increase Afghanistan's water flow to Iran by pouring more water from the Kamal Khan dam into Lake Hamun, a gesture that was welcomed by the Iranians at the time. Some observers also report that the Taliban barter water in exchange for oil, gas, or electricity. 

Nevertheless, following the May 27 incident, Tehran and Kabul immediately attempted to calm things down. The spokesman for the Taliban's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Hafiz Zia Ahmad, declared: “We don’t want relations with our neighboring countries to deteriorate ... The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is never in favor of escalation”.

With climate change and intensifying droughts, these tensions are destined to resurface and escalate over time. The world is growing hotter and drier, and there is no escaping the reality of global warming. Water is increasingly becoming a vital and strategic resource worldwide, and now more than ever, it is a source of conflict.