Iran's Shadow: The Driving Force Behind Israel and Azerbaijan's Ties

While the perceived threat arising from Iran’s aggressive foreign policy and extensive asymmetrical operations in the Middle East have brought countries such as Israel and Bahrain closer together, even potentially contributing to the establishment of Israel-Saudi ties, one country is often overlooked in this dynamic: Azerbaijan. This oversight is even more surprising considering that it is only one of three Shia-majority states, and the revolutionary Islamist ideology that Iran attempts to export is specifically tailored to Shia religious motives and political sentiments. This is evident from its success in Shia-majority areas such as Northern Yemen, Southern Iraq, or Lebanon's south and Bekaa Valley. Hence, the fact that a country seemingly susceptible to Iran's ideological and political influence expansion is a staunch ally of Israel might, at first, appear surprising. This piece will explain why this is so and the current nature of the strong Israeli-Azerbaijani relationship.   

While the reasons behind the animosity between Israel and Iran are quite clear, the reasons for the strained relations between Iran and Azerbaijan are less so and merit a brief explanation. One of the main reasons is the fact that in Iran, ethnic Azeris constitute almost one-fifth of the population, and there are actually more Azeris in Iran than in Azerbaijan itself. This creates an anti-regime, Azeri nationalist sentiment, which translates into calls for greater autonomy or the establishment of a so-called “Greater Azerbaijan”, a state which would incorporate all ethnic Azeris. While the strength of such political sentiment often is debated and is hard to reliably quantify, what matters is that the Iranian regime is aware of it and genuinely fears it. It is a dynamic in which a regime perceives an existence of the filth column within its borders, whether real or perceived, leading to disenfranchisement, animosity, and in some ways, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. On the other side of the equation, Azerbaijan is eager for greater influence expansion and also sees Iran as a threat due to Iran's attempts to export its revolutionary ideology to any state with a significant Shia population. Moreover, Iran, a Russian ally, has been supporting Armenia in its conflict and wars with Azerbaijan, significantly contributing to the strained Iran-Azeri relations. Additionally, there are numerous Caspian Sea disputes between Iran and Azerbaijan. Therefore, one reason behind the strong Israeli-Azeri relations is a classic convergence of interests, namely, the shared perception of Iran as a major geopolitical threat.

While having a common foe often leads to geopolitical marriages of convenience there are, in fact, more reasons behind the strong and positive state of relations between Israel and Azerbaijan. Firstly, there is a long and positive history of a Jewish community living in Azerbaijan, making it a country where anti-Zionism and antisemitism have not been as prevalent, further enhancing their cordial relations. Moreover, Azerbaijan has a strong secular tradition and a stable authoritarian regime, making it an even more attractive partner for Israel.

Nevertheless, while they share geopolitical outlooks and some history, there is also simply much to gain from cooperation for both states. As the foundation of this relationship is the common view of Iran as a major threat, the main pillar of cooperation between Israel and Baku is military and technology. Azerbaijan is now Israel's second largest destination for weapons exports, especially high-tech Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Futhermore, Israel’s Elta Systems carried out a digital mapping of the Karabakh region, which Azerbaijan subsequently used in its successful war with Armenia in 2020. The same conflict in which Israeli, as well as Turkish, UAVs have been instrumental to Azerbaijani success. While the benefits for Azerbaijan are crystal clear, Israel gains not only financially and geopolitically from this cooperation but also has a testing ground for its weapons systems Israel’s operations in Syria or against Hamas are low-scale, low-intensity ones more akin to counter-terrorism efforts. In contrast, Azerbaijani military operations against Armenia represent a larger-scale military engagement, providing Israel with insights into how its hardware performs under such circumstances. Moreover, the presence of Israeli technology and weapons in Azerbaijan involves the presence of some Israeli staff for activities such as training or maintenance, creating the almost certainly exercised opportunity for intelligence gathering. This is not to mention the extremely high possibility of intelligence cooperation between the two countries. While the military-security aspect is the main focus of this relation, there is also an energy dimension, as Azerbaijan currently supplies an astonishing 40% of Israel’s energy needs.

While the nature of the cooperation has been described above there is one more development that should be included when writing about the two states’ relationship. Recently, it has become much more overt. In the past, Azerbaijan has not been as public and vocal about its ties with Israel, as it would negatively affect its own relations with other Muslim-majority countries. This has been best exemplified by the fact that while Israel has had an embassy in Baku since the early 1990’s, established shortly after the host country’s secession from the USSR, Azerbaijan only opened its embassy in Tel Aviv in March this year. This marks a significant change because historically, as Azeri President Aliyev himself has remarked, the relations between the two countries have been like an "iceberg," with most of them occurring below the surface. The opening of Azeri embassy, therefore, marks a shift in this policy, which has additionally been signaled by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s visit to Baku in July of this year and Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit just a few weeks earlier. The increasingly overt nature of the relationship derives from two factors. One is the high level of cooperation in sensitive sectors, such as security, which is truly unprecedented. The other concerns regional conditions. Following the 2020 Abraham Accords and what now seems as only a matter of time, Saudi recognition of Israel, there is a general normalization of establishing and expanding ties with Israel in the broader region. This thus has a sort of snowball effect, as each recognition and establishment of ties creates further precedent and makes such moves seem more acceptable, effectively becoming the new norm. Additionally, reducing the number of countries that could lead any backlash creates favorable conditions for Azerbaijan to conduct its relations with Israel more openly and publicly.

While the ties between Israel and Azerbaijan are now at an all-time high and there is a significant degree of interdependence, militarily for the latter, energy-wise for the former, future limitations to this relationship should nevertheless be acknowledged. Firstly, there is regime security in Azerbaijan. While the current President’s Alyiev position is strong and rather unshakable, his son and heir, Heydar, is generally regarded as much less charismatic and suitable for office. Moreover, Azerbaijan is over-dependent on fossil fuels, as their export constitutes 90% of all goods leaving the country. As these resources deplete over time and as the global economy continues its efforts to transition to alternative forms of energy, this will have negative economic effects unless precautions are taken. A weakened economy could naturally contribute to and/or cause political instability, which, coupled with a leadership crisis, could have strongly impactful effects that might translate into policy changes. Additionally, although Azerbaijan's strong secular tradition is currently strongly present and influential in the political system, Iran's attempts at ideological influence expansion are not ceasing and would have a window of opportunity in a moment of crisis. Nevertheless, these are more long-term concerns and possible problems. As of today, the Israeli-Azerbaijani relationship and alliance against Iran are as strong, stable, and impactful as ever.