Nine Years of Conflict: Recent Developments in Yemen's War
Yemen's civil war and ensuing humanitarian crisis have been devastating, resulting in approximately 377,000 deaths, massive displacements, food insecurity, and limited healthcare access. This has led many to deem it one of the world's worst conflicts. However, progress in ceasefire talks between Saudi Arabia and Yemeni factions earlier this year provided some hope. This article explores the latest developments in Yemen's war, including how the recent Gaza conflict that erupted in early October may impact the situation.
On September 14th, for the first time since 2014, Houthi representatives travelled to Riyadh to engage in talks mediated by Oman. The discussions covered the path to a ceasefire and economic topics such as the opening of airports. According to Saudi Arabia, the talks were positive, and the country encouraged the “Yemeni parties [...] to reach a comprehensive and lasting political solution in Yemen under the supervision of the United Nations”.
The war in Gaza has drawn attention to the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen, which is part of Iran's “axis of resistance”. Since 2014, when the Houthis overturned Yemen's government, the movement remained committed to the Palestinian cause, bolstering domestic support. Three days after the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas, Abdulmalek Al-Houthi, the Houthi leader, declared that the group was ready to respond to any American involvement in the conflict.
Although Houthi military capabilities are limited compared to Saudi Arabia, it is essential to note that Iran has provided the Houthis with advanced systems, such as ballistic and cruise missiles such as the Burkan-3 and Quds-2, as well as drones like the Shahed-136 or the Samad-3. At the end of October, the guided-missile destroyer USS Carney intercepted 14 drones and four long-range cruise missiles launched from Yemen, believed to be targeting Israel.
While the Houthis contemplate future actions, their statements underscore three key points: staunch support for Palestine, tightening Iran axis relations, and projecting growing military strength. Indeed, the Houthis are strengthening ties with Iran-aligned groups, coordinating military operations which could result in being seen as a regional actor beyond Yemen. This growing network aims to signal to Israel and the U.S. the potential costs of escalating conflict. As such, the Houthis want to demonstrate their expanding military power despite limited success so far.
Despite this strong position, Houthis’ restraint seems necessary to avoid endangering their position in Yemen. The Houthis need to weigh the risks and benefits of more aggressive actions against Israel and the U.S., as these could break down the fragile diplomatic progress being made to end the Yemeni conflict, especially if other parties such as Saudi Arabia view the Houthis as fueling larger regional tensions. While asserting their strength may play well domestically, the Houthis likely recognize that overreaching militarily could undo efforts to consolidate their control and achieve greater stability in Yemen.
Consequently, the advancements of the war in Gaza and the involvement of Yemeni actors in the conflict may have a significant impact on the current discussions. The Houthis’ stance on the war and alliance with Iran could prompt Saudi Arabia to reduce or abandon talks. Ultimately, the group’s choices regarding regional positioning versus local interests will be continually tested, and how the Houthis respond to Gaza events could steer Yemen toward de-escalation or deeper conflict.