Peace and Humanitarian Relief Prospects in Yemen Following the Reestablishment of Saudi-Iranian Relations
On March 11th, 2023, it was announced that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) would resume diplomatic relations after their suspension in 2016. While this development has a plethora of complex implications for the regional order, one issue appeared to dominate subsequent coverage and analyses: the civil war and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen. Since 2014, the Ansarullah Party, also known as the Houthis, has been fighting the Yemeni government, successfully capturing the capital and dominating the Northern regions, particularly Sadaa. The conflict involves a variety of local actors, the Houthis, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), and the Yemeni government, each backed by international states, such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and KSA, with the Gulf countries directly participating in the conflict. The war has led to what the UN calls the biggest humanitarian crisis in the world, encompassing almost four hundred thousand deaths, probable war crimes, the worst cholera outbreak in the world, famine, 4.5 million displaced people, and spillover to neighboring KSA and UAE. The need for peace and resolution of the above issues has been immense, and the re-establishment of Saudi-Iranian relations has contributed to Houthi-Saudi peace talks. Therefore, after eight years of immense crisis, it is clear that peace is just a matter of time. However, while these news are extremely welcome steps in the right direction, the attainment of a satisfactory humanitarian situation in Yemen is unfortunately a distant prospect for a number of reasons.
Firstly, the scale of problems in the country is immense. The Yemeni population at large is facing acute lack of access to basic necessities such as water, food, healthcare, and housing. These issues combined have led to famine, extreme and widespread poverty, the worst cholera outbreak in history, and 4.3 million internally displaced people (IDP). Considering the scale of these matters, the amount of political will and resources needed to enable the Yemeni people to fully exercise their human rights is extremely high. Recovery after such devastating conflicts and political ruptures often lasts decades, if it even manages to succeed. Therefore, while the recent developments are significant and positive, the scale and the amount of problems necessitating resolution are a reminder that the situation is still far from satisfactory.
Moreover, another cause for limited hope is the fact that we are still early in the process. While the recent Pentagon leaks confirmed that Houthi-KSA talks have been going on since at least February, it is unfortunately possible they may last for years. This is because both parties commenced the negotiations from extremely maximalist positions, consciously attempting to attain the best possible deal through long-term, incremental bargaining. The Houthis’ demand that the KSA cover the salaries of its fighters is the prime example of this. Moreover, even if peace came tomorrow, it would only allow the beginning of reconstruction and further improvement of the humanitarian situation, which, due to the scale of the problems, will still be equally challenging. There have been some positive developments, such as a Saudi delegation visiting Houthi-held capital Sanaa, bilateral prisoner exchanges involving almost a thousand fighters, and Emirati military withdrawal from the country. While these are welcome political developments, it is necessary to ensure that they translate to the humanitarian situation on the ground. These are indeed all positive news, however, none of them address the acute humanitarian crisis in the country.
It is also relevant to note that war and humanitarian crisis in Yemen are two separate issues, although the former exponentially aggravates the latter.Therefore, while peace will be a significant improvement of the situation, it still will not be even remotely satisfactory as many problems predate the war and are at least partially independent from it. The water crisis that has been going on for decades (there was a quarter million IDPbefore the 2011 Revolution), and the resolution of the health crisis will necessitate the recreation of the entire healthcare infrastructure. Peace will only allow the commencement of all these extremely complex matters, which themselves are likely to take years to be resolved.
Finally, it is equally important to emphasize that there are other political actors, apart from the Houthis and KSA, which possess local political capital but are being excluded from the official peace talks and hence a possible agreement. Namely, the STC, the Islah Party, and an amalgam of Salafi-Jihadi factions, all of which can contribute to instability even if the Houthis make peace with KSA. Although neither of these sides possess the amount of power and capital comparable to the Houthis and the Yemeni government, they still have the capacity to negatively affect the peace negotiations and the post-war order.
However, the ongoing talks and recent developments are the most significant of all positive ones since the war started. Last year’s truce and the current situation are indeed the biggest improvements yet. Nevertheless, this should not obscure the fact that a satisfactory humanitarian situation in Yemen is still years away, and its achievement will warrant immense political will and resources.