The Impacts of the Reestablishment of Saudi-Iranian Relations
Saudi Arabia and Iran have taken a historic step towards ending decades of hostility and mistrust by agreeing to restore diplomatic relations. This détente, facilitated by China, could reshape regional geopolitics and lead to major changes in the region. This report reviews the possible impacts of such an agreement, in particular in relations with the war in Yemen, where both powers are involved.
The Saudi-Iranian rivalry has been present in the region for over 40 years, despite occasional prior attempts at rapprochement. Tensions further escalated after 2016, when Saudi Arabia severed ties following attacks on its embassy in Tehran during protests over the execution of the cleric Nimr al-Nimr. In the agreement of March 10, 2023, the two rivals laid out a roadmap for restoring relations within two months. The roadmap included, for example, invitations for reciprocal visits to Tehran and Riyadh, as well as discussions regarding the opening of an Iranian embassy in Riyadh.
On one hand, this agreement is in the interest of Saudi Arabia and its national strategy, Vision 2030, aiming to foster the country’s economy and development. On the other hand, Tehran would also benefit from the agreement and the investment opportunities that could arise from it. However, it is important to understand that any investment possibilities may potentially face complications due to Iran’s international position and ongoing isolation. In addition, Iran's nuclear program is still deemed a threat by Gulf states, and Saudi Arabia will need time to regain trust and solidify it after years of tensions. Saudi Investment Minister Khalid al-Fatih claimed to be “optimistic” about the economic potential arising from the agreement. However, it is possible that Riyadh is purposely using the investment incentives to show good intentions to China and hopes that it will help to build solid bases for relations while knowing that Iranian sanctions may prevent any serious deal or that Iran may break the terms of the deal.
While some hope that the agreement will foster progress on regional conflicts, it is worth noting that the agreement is by no means a concrete measure for resolving the Yemen conflict. Indeed, the complex relations between both powers are particularly evident in Yemen, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels are fighting the Saudi-supported government.
The agreement could foster peace opportunities for the conflict. Indeed, China, closely supporting the agreement, has signalled its interest in restoring peace in Yemen, despite the complicated situation that may limit its direct or indirect efforts. Having a global power supporting the resolution efforts could permit Saudi Arabia and Iran to reach an agreement. The improvement of Saudi-Iranian relations could possibly ease tensions through mutual agreement or contribute to the de-escalation of violence by reducing military support to the belligerents. In essence, the agreement could potentially limit external power’s proxy involvement, reducing incentives for confrontation in the country.
However, it is important to approach this agreement cautiously, as it is in no case a guarantee that it will permit a major shift in conflict resolution. First, any regional interest and power competition will pressure the negotiation surrounding the resolution efforts. In addition, complex internal divisions present amongst the different stakeholders in Yemen could easily hinder the talks. Yemen's civil war stems primarily from internal rifts between factions. Therefore, while the Saudi-Iranian pact is a welcome step, Yemen's future likely hinges on inclusive political solutions between competing domestic groups after years of conflict. Since fighting erupted in 2014, the war has become regionalized, but diplomacy focused solely on Riyadh and Tehran will be insufficient. In other words, peace efforts require a settlement involving the Houthis, Yemen's government, southern separatists, and other local actors involved in the conflict.
Overall, while the agreement has the potential to reduce the tensions and decrease the militarisation of the conflict supported by both regional powers, the talks should include the internal actors of Yemen.
Image Credits: Bandar Al Galoud — Edited by GorStra Team