Unresolved Conflicts: Assessing the Heightening Rivalry between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the Viability of a New Peace Deal

While the world is watching the war in Ukraine, tensions are rising in another corner of the world between two former Soviet republics, i.e., Armenia and Azerbaijan. Tensions between the two increased after Azerbaijan set up a checkpoint on the Lachin Corridor last month, the only land route linking the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory to Armenia. But before discussing the current situation between the two countries, it is necessary to understand the deep historical and ethnic roots of the conflict.

The two countries have a long-standing conflict primarily centered around the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh - known as Artsakh by Armenians - a landlocked mountainous area surrounded by Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus. The territory is internationally recognized as part of the Republic of Azerbaijan, but its inhabitants are predominantly ethnic Armenians with their own government, which has close links to the government in neighboring Armenia. Ethnic differences have been a major factor in the decades-long conflict between the two republics, with a Christian-majority Armenia, and predominantly Shiite Azerbaijan, whose fighting had been kept under relative control during Soviet rule. 

However, with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 came a rise in tensions. Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence, intending to reunify with Armenia, triggering the first full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, also called the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988-1994). The war resulted in significant human suffering and economic hardships for both countries, with approximately 30,000 casualties and hundreds of thousands of people displaced. By 1993, Armenia had gained complete control of the territory, and one year later, in 1994, Russia brokered a ceasefire known as the Bishkek Protocol, thus ending the war and marking the start of a 25-year stalemate. However, the fact that Armenia remained in control of the territory, with the support of Russia, did not sit well with Azerbaijan and further contributed to the unresolved conflict and ongoing tensions.

In late September 2020, a major escalation occurred, leading to the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, a 44-day war resulting in thousands of casualties and displacement on both sides. This time, Azerbaijan won a decisive victory, with the assistance of Turkish and Israeli attack drones, recapturing much of the disputed territory, and leaving Armenia with only a portion of it. In November 2020, a ceasefire agreement was brokered by Russia, leading to the deployment of approximately 2,000 Russian peacekeeping forces in the region and a temporary cessation of hostilities.

However, the underlying tensions, failed mediation efforts, and the unresolved status of Nagorno-Karabakh remain contentious issues, leading to a flare-up in September of last year and, most recently, in April, potentially destabilizing the South Caucasus region. With the new checkpoint set up by Azerbaijan on the Lachin Corridor last month, decades of mistrust, bitterness, and geopolitical rivalry flared up once again. Additionally, tensions increased due to an exchange of fire near Tegh, a village on the contested Lachin corridor, in early April, killing at least three Azerbaijani and four Armenian soldiers. There is no clarity as to which party initiated the shootings. 

In a statement, Azerbaijan defended the establishment of the checkpoint as it would prevent “large-scale abuse of the Lachin road by Armenia,” which, according to the Government of Azerbaijan, has been used as a passage to transport personnel, ammunition, and weapons, including land mines that have been planted on their sovereign territory. "Providing border security, as well as ensuring safe traffic on the road, is the prerogative of the government of Azerbaijan, and an essential prerequisite for national security, state sovereignty and the rule of law”, the foreign ministry of Azerbaijan said. 

Meanwhile, Armenia has accused Azerbaijan of attempting to blockade the only land route linking the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory to Armenia, cutting off the region’s Armenian residents from access to food, fuel, and medicines. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said in a statement that the checkpoint was “a flagrant violation of one of the fundamental provisions of November 9, 2020 Trilateral statement”. Armenia has called on the Russian Federation and its peacekeeping contingent - deployed in the area as part of the agreed ceasefire by both sides - to eliminate “the illegal blockade of the Lachin corridor and ensure the withdrawal of Azerbaijani forces from the entire security zone of the corridor”. 

International actors such as the US, the EU, and Russia have intervened in an attempt to negotiate a peace agreement, promote stability and de-escalate the situation. At the time of this article, several peace talks have been held, starting with the four-day talks in the US with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoya and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov in early May. Secretary of State Anthony J.Blinken has said he was “pleased with the progress made and optimistic an agreement was within reach”. On the 14th of May, talks were also held in Brussels between President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia, hosted by the president of the European Council, Charles Michel. Most recently, on the 25th of May, both leaders met in Moscow for a new round of talks as part of a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Council (EEC) hosted by President Vladimir Putin, which seems to have had favorable results as both leaders confirmed they are ready to normalize relations based on “mutual recognition of territorial integrity”.

Hence, the talks seem to be advancing. Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has recently said that he is prepared to recognize the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan if Baku guarantees the security of the ethnic Armenian population in the area. Likewise, Armenia urges international actors such as the EU and Russia to help prevent a catastrophic new conflict in the region, as this is not in anyone’s best interest. It is in the EU’s particular interest to normalize relations and stabilize the situation, as it signed a deal last year with the fuel-rich country of Azerbaijan to double its annual gas deliveries to the bloc by 2027, thus reducing its reliance on Russian energy. Likewise, it is unclear the level of Turkish influence in the conflict and to what extent Moscow will be able to successfully play the role of mediator, as the war in Ukraine has hampered its ability to project regional military power.

A new set of talks are scheduled for June 1 in Moldova with President Emmanuel Macron of France and Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz. However, it remains to be seen whether a peace deal will be viable in the long term and whether both parties will respect it, especially given their history of mistrust and not standing by agreed ceasefires. Moreover, there is uncertainty regarding two key issues: whether Azerbaijan will agree to guarantee the security of the ethnic Armenian population in the area and, if agreed upon, how the latter will react to Mr. Pashinyan’s statement, given that the area is home to tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians who have for decades refused to be governed by Azerbaijan. Mr. Pashinyan’s announcement will likely be met with resistance, putting the viability of a long-term peace deal at risk.