What’s at stake in the upcoming Turkish 2023 general and parliamentary elections?
Turkey’s next general and parliamentary elections are set to take place on May 14th 2023, amidst a deepening economic crisis while recovering from the catastrophic February earthquakes, killing tens of thousands and leaving millions homeless. According to a senior administration member, “people feel change is coming”, referring to the potential end of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s more-than-two-decade political reign, which has recently shown clear signs of decline. Recent polls are currently putting the united opposition – with Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) as its presidential candidate - more than 4 points ahead of the Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP).
The political landscape has shifted in just a couple of weeks’ time. Turkey’s enduring economic crisis, with the lira down 80% and high inflation at 55% year on year – widely believed to be much higher - has placed President Erdoğan in an unfavorable position ahead of the May presidential race. According to the World Bank, Turkey is further facing economic losses of up to 34.2 billion dollars due to the devastating February earthquakes. The government’s response has been poor and widely criticized for being corruptly related to the construction companies that neglected crisis management planning. Turkey is known to be in a seismic zone. However, construction rules and regulations were not honored, leading to preventable suffering that tragically ended with the lives of over 40 thousand people. Consequently, the government’s inability to respond effectively to the earthquakes and mobilize emergency services quickly enough has fueled public discontent, a deciding factor that does not play in Erdoğan’s favor. “If there is anyone responsible for this process, it is Erdoğan. It is this ruling party that has not prepared the country for an earthquake for 20 years,” said Kılıçdaroğlu in a video message, a day after the disaster hit.
The situation has worsened for Erdoğan, whose popularity has since declined. This, in turn, resulted in an increased emergence of a united opposition bloc, referred to as the National Alliance, and led by the CHP - the second-biggest party in parliament and Turkey's main secular opposition party. To be precise, it is composed of six opposition parties - the CHP, Good Party (İYİ), Felicity Party (SP), Future Party (GP), Democrat Party (DP) and Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) – thus representing the various political stances, i.e., social democrats, nationalists, secularists, and Islamists. According to Reuters, they have, among other things, pledged to “restore independence to the central bank and reverse Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies," bringing back the parliamentary system and resorting to democracy.
Despite the given circumstances, Erdoğan still retains significant support, and there is a chance he might be successful in the upcoming presidential elections. Until the 2010s, the AKP enjoyed slight success as Turkey experienced impressive growth rates, providing economic stability. However, various opponents have accused Erdoğan of authoritarianism due to his extensive time in office as prime minister between 2003 and 2014 and president since 2014. Indeed, in the last 20 years, Erdoğan has reshaped Turkey in terms of creeping Islamization and changed the parliamentary-based system into essentially a one-person rule presidential system, all while controlling mainstream media. Hence, there is the possible threat of rigged elections or an attempt by Erdoğan to annul the presidential election results.
Considering the current geopolitical tensions worldwide, Turkey’s upcoming elections are a noteworthy event to watch closely in the upcoming weeks due to its geopolitical implications. Since it geographically lies between Europe and Asia, south of Ukraine and Russia, and north of Syria, it puts Turkey in a delicate position for potential conflict escalations, but also de-escalations. As a regional actor, Turkey could play a strategic role in potentially diffusing conflicts by, for instance, acting as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, as previously seen when it brokered the grain deal between the two. Following the upcoming consequential and complex Turkish elections on May 14th will therefore be critical, not only for the future of Turkish politics but also for the future of regional and international stability.