What Did the Coronation Tell Us About the Current State of Irish Terrorism?

On Saturday the 6th of May, King Charles III was crowned King of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in an extravagant ceremony at Westminster Abbey. The day before was the 42nd anniversary of the death of Bobby Sands, an Irish republican who died protesting the unlawful treatment of, primarily Catholic, “political prisoners”. One month earlier, the 25th anniversary of 1998’s Good Friday Agreement, which ended 30 years of violent conflict in Northern Ireland, was commemorated throughout the British Isles.

Whilst there were concerns about the security of the coronation, anti-terrorist measures were taken on the day including sniper teams being positioned around London and attendees being vetted leading to the arrest of 52 people on the day, fears of Irish terrorism which had dominated royal events 30 years ago seemed largely forgotten. So, what can the coronation tell us about the current state of Irish terrorism and how does this compare to the atmosphere in Northern Ireland in the decades before the Good Friday Agreement?

Since 1998, the atmosphere in Northern Ireland has improved bit by bit. The majority of terrorist groups in the country have stuck to the terms of the ceasefire signed as part of the peace process, violence is down and, as a whole, the country is experiencing a relative calm, unimaginable only a few decades ago. However, this doesn’t mean that the relationship between Northern Ireland and the monarchy is easy. As extreme sectarian sentiment has declined, amongst both Republicans and Unionists, the net result has been a decline in support for the royal family. This is not to suggest a mass movement towards republicanism, although the unpopularity of Brexit alongside a Catholic-weighted demographic shift has certainly contributed to a Republican sentiment which comes with anti-monarchy sentiment as standard. 

Rather, since 1998, over 560,000 of Northern Ireland’s 1.9 million strong population were born. That is to say, over a quarter of the population was born with no direct experience of the troubles, leading to a new Northern Irish politics, less centred around the divide between Republicans and Unionists. This has meant that historical, religious, and family ties play a somewhat lesser role in opinions surrounding the monarchy, allowing young people from traditionally unionist areas more freedom in choosing who to give their support to on the royal debate. As such, non-sectarian anti-monarchy feeling has increased in line with the rest of the United Kingdom which, when combined with the base of republican anti-monarchy sentiment in the country indicates a difficult situation for the royals in Northern Ireland.

This has not, however, manifested itself in violence. In fact, despite public opinion moving away from the monarchy as a whole, there have been efforts at reconciliation surrounding the coronation. Republican political figures have attended public events prior to the coronation as well as on the day itself. Most notable was the attendance of Sinn Féin’s deputy leader Michelle O’Neill as well as Alex Maskey, speaker of the Irish parliament, Sinn Féin member, and accused provisional IRA ex-member, at pre-coronation events following Queen Elizabeth’s death as well as at the coronation itself. This has not gone unnoticed by more militant elements of Irish republicanism, People Before Profit and Aontú stating it was "utterly shameful" and evidence that Sinn Féin would "jettison almost anything in their quest for power". Yet, this has not been taken up by the mainstream suggesting a more general desire for reconciliation. What is telling with regards to this relationship, however, was Maskey’s speech following the queen’s death in which he offered condolences to the royal family and, in a thinly veiled attack on the British government’s efforts in relation to the Stormont stalemate, contrasted the Queen's leadership in helping to build peace and reconciliation with the lack of leadership elsewhere. This is indicative of a broader trend in republican politics that puts greater emphasis on the legislative political institutions of the United Kingdom as opposed to the symbolic ones, such as the crown, which in turn reflects a more pragmatic, less sectarian strand of politics.

The situation in Northern Ireland is not, however, entirely stable. On the Republican side, breakaway groups stemming from the disbanded IRA have been problematic. Whilst these groups are operationally limited due to their weakened support base, mainly engaging in local, small-scale, violence, there have been outlying cases of violence which deserve mention. Most notable was the New IRA’s murder of journalist Lyra McKee in Derry/Londonderry as she covered rioting in 2019, leading to a widespread backlash against the group. More recently, was the shooting of senior police officer John Caldwell whilst off-duty in Omagh that took place in February of this year. A month after the event, and a month before the coronation, the terrorism threat level in Northern Ireland was raised to severe. So, whilst the situation in Northern Ireland has been improving steadily since Good Friday, it is still a concern, especially when events such as the coronation take place. It is worth mentioning that terrorism and violence in the area is not one-sided, a 2021 study suggested that 90% of unionists and loyalists in Northern Ireland believe that reunification with the Republic of Ireland would lead to violence, however as long as Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom and republican paramilitaries remain relatively weak, unionists are likely to remain peaceful.

Ultimately, despite sporadic violence, Northern Ireland is the most peaceful it has been in years, and the coronation is something of a litmus test for this. Whilst at Queen Elizabeth’s coronation in 1953 the IRA threatened celebrations, even in the Republic, at King Charles’ coronation the only mention of Irish terrorism has been around reconciliation and peace. Now, a month on from the coronation, and despite fears around the recent elections with Republican Sinn Féin becoming the largest party in local government for the first time in Northern Irish history, all seems relatively peaceful. What could have been a violent cocktail with the convergence of the coronation, the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, Brexit troubles, the ongoing investigation surrounding John Caldwell, and the elections, has proved to us that whilst all is not perfect, Northern Ireland is reaching some sort of peaceful normalcy. Certainly, in the 70 years between Queen Elizabeth’s coronation in 1953 and King Charles’ in 2023, these two markers show us just how far the country has come, even if there is still a way to go.

Image Credit: Katie Chan — Edited by GorStra Team