The Tipping Point?: Mounting challenges for Myanmar’s Military Junta

In recent weeks, the ongoing conflict in Myanmar has reached a critical juncture, marked by a series of events suggesting a possible collapse of the military junta's grip on power. Battlefield defeats, defections, and territorial losses have brought the regime to a tipping point, prompting speculation about its future.

Since a military coup in 2021 Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil war with opposition groups, including ethnic insurgents and civilian militias, challenging the junta's authority. The conflict has resulted in thousands of casualties and the displacement of approximately 2.3 million people, according to the United Nations. Despite the humanitarian impact, the conflict remains largely overshadowed by other global crises, partly due to its perceived lesser strategic importance for those outside the region, and complex internal dynamics.

In early April,  the National Unity Government (NUG) claimed responsibility for a drone attack on key military targets in the capital, Nay Pyi Taw. The NUG, representing the ousted civilian government led by imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi, orchestrated a coordinated strike involving 29 drones. The targets included the airport, air force base, and army headquarters. Nay Pyi Taw, constructed as a fortified stronghold by the regime, became the focal point of the recent attack, highlighting the vulnerability of the junta even in its most secure stronghold. 

The attack, alongside other recent developments, marks a significant escalation in the resistance against the ruling military and a potential turning point in the ongoing conflict. The military is facing both internal dissent and external pressure, with ongoing armed resistance and economic instability. Following the synchronised offensive initiated last October by three rebel factions from ethnic minority groups in the northern part of the country, it is clear that the regime is encountering its biggest threat since seizing power in 2021. 

The NUG and other anti-coup forces have been gaining ground and recent defeats, such as the loss of strategic border town Myawaddy to ethnic Karen insurgents, have been compounded by the defection of militia groups. The loss of Myawaddy adds to a growing series of territorial losses suffered by the military junta in recent months, including relinquishing control of areas along the Chinese border in Shan State and in Rakhine State near Bangladesh. The military's inability to reinforce its positions in Karen State, coupled with the loss of key supply routes to the Thai border, has only exacerbated its vulnerability.

The junta's decision to forcibly enlist Rohingya recruits signifies its desperation amidst mounting losses to ethnic insurgent groups. Faced with significant territorial setbacks and dwindling manpower, the military is seeking to bolster its forces by exploiting vulnerable populations, including those it previously targeted for ethnic cleansing in the case of the Rohingya.

International pressure, exemplified by Singapore's crackdown on arms sales to Myanmar, has exacerbated the junta's isolation and logistical challenges, raising questions about its long-term viability. The junta is facing heightened costs and logistical hurdles in sustaining their military operations amidst increasing internal and external pressure. In a significant move, several countries imposed fresh sanctions on the military junta and its supporters in February, coinciding with the third anniversary of the military coup. In the same month, nine members of the UN Security Council, including the US, UK, and France, condemned the junta for its indiscriminate air strikes on civilians.

Myanmar's military junta finds itself at a critical crossroads, facing pressures that threaten its grip on power. While the military still retains control over major cities like Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw, its grip on power appears to be increasingly tenuous. The recent losses on the battlefield, coupled with low morale among troops and international pressure, signify a turning point in the conflict and a potential endgame for the military junta. As long opposition leaders remain imprisoned or in exile, the future of Myanmar is uncertain, especially if the junta shows no inclination towards transitioning to civilian or shared governance.