Modi’s Election Setback: Insights into India’s General Election

The landscape of Indian politics has changed due to the recent general election results. This has impacted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a figure who has dominated Indian politics for over a decade. Despite winning a third consecutive term, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fell short of securing an outright majority, marking a notable change from previous elections.

In the latest election, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Modi's BJP, secured 293 seats in the lower house of parliament, surpassing the 272-seat threshold required for a majority. However, the BJP alone won only 240 seats, a drop from 303 seats won in the 2019 election. This outcome has necessitated a coalition government, relying on allies to maintain stability.

Modi's previous electoral victories in 2014 and 2019 were marked by landslide wins, with the NDA achieving significant majorities. The 2024 election results, therefore, represent a blow to Modi, who has maintained a firm grip on Indian politics for a decade.

Several factors influenced this election outcome. Economic challenges, including high unemployment rates, inflation, and a cost of living crisis, were major issues that influenced voters. The opposition, led by the Congress party and Rahul Gandhi, campaigned on promises to address these economic issues, attracting significant support. After ten years in power, Modi's administration also faces growing dissatisfaction, with economic factors and a perceived lack of progress in areas such as employment and agriculture contributing to the anti-BJP factor.

At the same time, Modi's campaign, which included divisive rhetoric and dog whistle politics against minority groups, seems to have alienated some voters. The communal narrative of Hindu dominance, although previously effective, did not yield the same results this time. Notably, the BJP lost ground in Uttar Pradesh, a state long considered its stronghold. This outcome is especially surprising given Modi's recent inauguration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, an event that was supposed to bolster his Hindu nationalist agenda. The temple, built on the site of a mosque demolished two decades ago, was widely seen as the pinnacle of Modi’s decade-long rule.

With the BJP now needing coalition partners to govern, Modi's political vision will be tested. Managing coalition dynamics, especially given his reputation for being a domineering leader, will be crucial. The BJP's resulting dependency on allies makes it vulnerable to political bargaining and demands from coalition partners. This may threaten its Hindu nationalist agenda,a key pillar of Modi and the BJP’s ideology.

The Congress-led opposition alliance INDIA 's surprisingly strong performance signifies a revival of opposition politics in India. The coalition's ability to attract voters on economic issues and promises of inclusive development has reinvigorated the opposition landscape. The alliance of over two dozen parties was established in 2023. These parties united over what they perceived to be increasing democratic backsliding, as well as his assertive Hindu nationalism, which they believe has marginalised the country's minorities, particularly India’s Muslim community.

Modi's third term is set to be his most challenging, especially due to his autocratic leadership style. The economic landscape requires attention, particularly in job creation and reducing inequality. Additionally, Modi's approach to governance, especially regarding minority groups and democracy, will be closely scrutinised. As Modi navigates his third term, his ability to manage a coalition and address the country's pressing economic and social issues will be pivotal.