The Russia-Iran Alliance: What’s Next?
The Russia-Ukraine war has been internationalized and brought states closer together at an unprecedented rate. The deepening ties between Russia and Iran and their newfound military friendship exemplify this trend. Relations between Russia and the West have undoubtedly deteriorated since Russia invaded Ukraine, a Western ally. Simultaneously, Iran’s relations with the West have particularly faltered since the failed 2015 nuclear deal, i.e., the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” (JCPOA), and their economic relations with Europe have decreased following the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the deal in 2018. Sanctions against both countries have pushed them closer together than ever before. As a result, Russia and Iran have found themselves in an isolated position and need a strategic friend to resist Western sanctions, challenge the U.S.-dominated global order jointly, and push for their mutual vision of a multipolar world order.
Iran has now become one of Russia’s most significant collaborators in the war in Ukraine. There is evidence that since August 2022, Russia has been importing hundreds of crewless Iranian-made drones, including the Shahed-136 precision-attack suicide drone, also known as the ‘kamikaze’ drone, and the Mohajer-6 surveillance and strike drone. Russia has fired these suicide drones on Ukrainian military positions as well as on civilian infrastructure, killing civilians. On the one hand, in October, Iran repeatedly denied the allegations of sending arms to Russia amid the conflict, with Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani, the permanent representative of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations, stating that “Iran has consistently advocated for peace and the immediate end to the conflict in Ukraine.” However, a month later, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian admitted that Tehran had provided a small number of drones before the war, but dismissed reports that Russia had used the drones against Ukraine and that more had been supplied since the invasion. “If it is proven to us that Russia has used Iranian drones in the Ukraine war, we won’t be indifferent to it,” according to Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. On the other hand, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has claimed that “We shoot down at least ten Iranian drones every day… only during one day yesterday [November 4, 2022], 11 Shahed drones were destroyed”.
Drones have not been the only source of security concern from the West, but also the 300,000 artillery shells and one million rounds of ammunition sent via the Caspian Sea from Tehran to Moscow between October 2022 and April 2023, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Supplies are mostly transported by sea, with many ships breaking international maritime safety rules by turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders and “going dark” on the Caspian Sea. In exchange, U.S. officials fear that Russia has been offering Iran unprecedented defense cooperation, including advanced military components worth billions, such as SU-35 fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, and Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft, as well as training. Additionally, in May 2023, the U.S. revealed that Russia is collaborating with Iran to manufacture Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) within Russian borders, building a lethal drone factory that could be fully operational by 2024.
An increase in military power in both countries will not only have negative consequences for Ukraine, but also for the global community and the safeguarding of human rights, triggering a security dilemma in the region. If Iran increases its conventional military power and obtains advanced air defense systems from Russia - a country that enjoys advanced capabilities in both imagery and signals intelligence - it may contribute to its nuclear weapons program and “better equip the country in fighting any future possible attack on its nuclear infrastructure or other strategic facilities.” Russia’s acquisition and Iran’s provisions of hundreds of UAVs, without prior UN Security Council approval, constitute a breach of UN Security Council Resolution 2231. The United States has taken action by implementing various sanctions, which include the sanctioning of six executives and board members from Qods Aviation Industries (QAI), an Iranian company that produced drones that were sent to Russia for use against Ukraine, as well as three Russian entities involved in procuring Iranian drones. The European Council has responded similarly to Iran’s actions, establishing a new framework of restrictive measures to persuade Iran to comply with international obligations.
The reasons behind Iran’s involvement are not fully known, but it is clear that it seeks to influence the outcome of the war and strengthen relations with Russia to secure funding for a crucial project, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The INSTC project was an idea conceived in the early 2000s by Russia, Iran, and India that aims to reshape Eurasian connectivity by envisioning a 7,200-kilometer-long “multimodal” transport corridor that extends from the Persian/Arabian Gulf to the Baltic Sea. Compared to the alternative, i.e., the Suez Canal Route, the corridor would be much shorter, twice as fast, and cost-effective. Earlier this year, the two countries signed an agreement to build a missing railway section of the INSTC, i.e., the Rasht-Astara railroad. It is worth noting that before the Russian-Ukraine war, Tehran complained that Moscow showed little interest in developing the necessary infrastructure for the INSTC to become a reality. However, in light of the shifting geopolitical landscape and reduced European trade with Russia, securing access to alternative markets and transport routes is in Russia's best interest. The INSTC, for example, could provide a viable alternative for Russia to gain access to new markets and transport routes, promoting economic growth.
Due to the ongoing war, recent data suggest Russia may face substantial pressure to offer significant project financing. Iranian authorities have reported that Russia has assumed the role of the largest foreign investor in Iran over the past year. Ehsan Khandouzi, Iran’s Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance, has stated that Russia’s investments totaled a noteworthy $2.76 billion during the previous fiscal year, representing two-thirds of the country’s foreign direct investment (FDI). China stands as Iran’s second-most prominent economic partner. As reported by the Financial Times, in March 2023, Iran’s finance minister revealed that Iran had achieved the highest level of oil exports in at least two years, surpassing the previous high of 1.3 million barrels a day despite facing sanctions from the US. However, Iran is facing an alarming 47.7% inflation rate and is struggling to fulfill its economic commitments, which has led to a growing financial burden on ordinary Iranians and fueled public discontent.
The INSTC project presents the ideal solution for these two heavily sanctioned nations to bypass Western influences and promote business and economic growth between themselves and potentially across the Middle East. The prospect of a shorter, more economical transportation corridor that reduces delivery lead time and minimizes contact with the West may seem like a dream scenario. However, analysts are skeptical about the feasibility of this project. Iran lacks the developed domestic infrastructure required to support such an endeavor, and it remains uncertain to what extent Russia is willing to provide Iran with financial support, especially given the country’s ongoing economic crisis.
The war in Ukraine has undeniably marked a turning point in Russian-Iranian relations, and their cooperation will likely continue to intensify. Russia and Iran are expected to advance their economic and security partnership, with Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov defying the West, stating that “We are independent states and do not succumb to the dictates of the United States and its satellites… There are no changes, and cooperation with Iran will continue”. As cautioned by the Biden administration, the military alliance between the two countries could lead to “a full-fledged defense partnership,” which is likely to grow stronger over time, thereby posing a heightened risk of prolonging the war in Ukraine. Recent events have brought attention to the rising collaboration between authoritarian regimes, a matter of growing concern. The potential emergence of a Russia-China-Iran-North Korea alliance could have serious global implications. Such an alliance could accelerate the nuclear capabilities of these nations, alter the balance of power, and pose a significant threat to the Western world and human rights worldwide.
Image Credits: Russian Presidential Press & Information Office — Edited by GorStra team