China's Ascendant Footprint in the Middle East: Unveiling the Dynamics of Beijing's Expanding Influence

China's involvement in the Middle East has witnessed a significant transformation over the past few decades, as expressed by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who stated in 2014 that “China’s political role in the Middle East will only grow. There is no way back.” As the world's second-largest economy and a rising global power, China's interest in the Middle East has expanded beyond mere energy security concerns, further driven by a combination of economic, political, and strategic factors. The Middle East - a strategic region in which the US has traditionally played an influential role as a security guarantor - seems to be shifting sides with an evermore active diplomatic player on the international stage, i.e., China. It is widely perceived that the US influence in the Middle East has waned, resulting from a new focus on the Indo-Pacific region, as well as the US’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and its complex relationship with Saudi Arabia.

While China’s economic and political engagement and influence in the Middle East are growing, it does not necessarily indicate a direct intention to challenge US influence in the region. Chinese officials have repeatedly reasserted that Beijing does not wish to become the “next America” in the region. However, it is advised to consider information originating from an autocratic country with caution. It remains to be seen whether this is a genuine intention from Beijing’s side or whether it is only offering a new, more economical way of engaging with the Middle East and its countries.

One of the primary drivers of China's engagement in the Middle East is its economic interests and insatiable demand for energy resources. In 2020, Beijing imported $176 billion worth of crude oil from the region, making China the largest crude oil importer globally. China heavily relies on the Middle East for nearly half (47%) of its oil imports. Consequently, it has developed deep economic ties with countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, China's two largest oil suppliers. Since 2010, Beijing has become the region’s biggest investor and leading trading partner, reaching $330 billion in 2021, far surpassing the US. Beijing has simultaneously become a significant provider of foreign direct investment (FDI) and technical cooperation. For instance, in 2021, China’s imports from the Middle East amounted to $130 billion compared to $34 billion for the US, while China’s exports to the region were $129 billion compared to the US at $48 billion.

Additionally, China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has also extended its economic reach into the Middle East. The BRI, also called the New Silk Road, is a massive China-led infrastructure project launched in 2013 to enhance connectivity and promote economic cooperation across Asia, Europe, Africa, and beyond through massive infrastructure investments, including ports, railways, and highways. Several Middle Eastern countries, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, have eagerly embraced the BRI as an opportunity to boost their economic growth. These infrastructure projects not only serve China's economic interests but also contribute to the development of the host countries' economies.

As China's economic power in the Middle East continues to grow, Beijing has notably transitioned from a foreign policy observer to a more active diplomatic player, using its economic might to promote its diplomatic agenda. On March 10, 2023, after seven years of open hostility and proxy conflicts across the Middle East, Beijing brokered a historic deal to restore diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia and reopen embassies within a two-month period. Ali Shamkhani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, described the talks as “unequivocal, transparent, comprehensive and constructive”, further commenting he was looking forward to relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia fostering “security and stability of the region.” 

Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, visited Beijing in February, and China’s president, Xi Jinping, visited Riyadh - the capital of Saudi Arabia - in December last year. Both visits were welcomed by government officials on both sides as they facilitated the opportunity for the negotiations to progress. The US also officially supported the visits, with John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, stating, “We support any effort there to de-escalate tensions in the region.”

It is important to remember the context when Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran completely in 2016, following protesters storming Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Tehran after Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Saudi Shiite cleric, Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr. Tensions have been high between the two Islamic countries for years, with a Shia-majority Iran and a Sunni-majority Saudi Arabia shaping politics and trade in the Middle East and supporting rival sides in proxy conflicts in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon. Tensions peaked in 2019 when a missile and drone assault on a key Saudi oil installation by the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen briefly disrupted half of Saudi Arabia's crude production. 

With nearly half of its oil imports from the Gulf, China not only wants but needs stability and security in the region to meet its insatiable demand for energy resources. It is not in China’s economic interest for a continued state of instability in the Gulf area, likely explaining China’s appeal to adopt a new role as the region’s conflict mediator. Indeed, this increased initiative from Beijing shows that they see themselves as a new power broker in the Middle East, counterbalancing Washington. Without a doubt, this has implications for the US and its influence in the region, with Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research institute, describing the recent development as “a lose, lose, lose for American interests… demonstrating that the Saudis don’t trust Washington to have their back.” Hence, it remains to be seen how the US will respond to China’s increasing dominance in the region, which seems to be becoming the “major-domo of Middle Eastern power politics.” 

The historic agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, negotiated with the help of China’s diplomatic efforts, will indeed change the dynamics of the region, easing regional tensions and internal turmoils marked by anti-government protests. China’s attempts to expand its role as a diplomatic player, along with its increased reliance on Middle Eastern energy resources and pursuit of regional connectivity through initiatives like the BRI, will likely deepen its engagement in the region. However, while China's presence offers potential economic opportunities for Middle Eastern nations, it also presents challenges in terms of environmental sustainability and human rights concerns. 

China’s high demand for energy resources has led to increased extraction and production activities in the region, negatively impacting the environment, exacerbating climate change, and hindering the transition to cleaner and renewable energy sources. Likewise, while China’s BRI infrastructure projects can boost economic development and create new jobs, they will also inevitably have adverse environmental impacts. Not only that, but China’s initiative has also led to a new wave of increased authoritarianism in the region, as well as human rights concerns, with at least 679 incidents of alleged human rights abuses linked to Chinese companies involved in infrastructure projects up until 2021.