Syria is back in the Arab League, what now?

Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League sounds the death knell of its regional isolation. Suspended from the organization for more than a decade because of the war led by Bashar al-Assad’s regime against its own population, this reintegration marks the culmination of a process of rehabilitation and warming of relations between Syria and its neighbors, which began several years ago. The process has significantly accelerated following the earthquake of February 6, 2023, and the subsequent humanitarian crisis. After being shunned by the international community and accused of war crimes, this represents a major diplomatic victory for Bashar al-Assad’s Syria. 

While some had hoped that Syria’s reintegration into the Arab League would be conditioned upon efforts and concessions, particularly in terms of democracy, this is not the case. Although the Secretary General of the Arab League, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, states that "the reinstatement of Syria does not mean normalization of relations between Arab countries and Syria", it nevertheless represents a big step in this direction, at least for a majority of Arab countries that have been seeking progress for some years. 

The coalition of Arab countries that voted in favor of Syria's reintegration is led by Saudi Arabia which is attempting to establish its leadership in the region amidst the United States’ disengagement from the Middle East and its détente with Iran. The Saudis, who had long supported the Syrian rebels and the removal of Bashar al-Assad, have recently shifted their focus to prioritizing regional stability. Saudi Arabia’s desire to mend ties with Syria also stems from its competition for influence with Iran. Despite recent ties being restored between the two regional powers, thanks to China’s involvement, they remain historical rivals in the Middle East, engaged in a permanent competition for their interests. The rapprochement with Syria is a way to reduce, at least a little, Iran’s influence in Syria, an unconditional support of Bashar al-Assad’s Syria since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011. 

The Arab League countries are banking on gradually eliciting concessions from Bashar al-Assad, acknowledging that the process will be “long and difficult”. They emphasize the need to “find Arab solutions to Arab issues”, as stated by the Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, as it is the “only way” to a settlement in Syria without external dictates. 

A group of several countries (Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, and the Arab League Secretary-General) are responsible for developing  a roadmap in collaboration with the Syrian government. This roadmap includes drafting a new constitution, organizing United Nations-supervised elections, releasing prisoners, facilitating humanitarian aid access, promoting the voluntary return of Syrian refugees and displaced persons, combating the terrorist threat through intelligence sharing, and addressing drug trafficking. In its final phase, this roadmap entails the withdrawal of all foreign fighters from Syria, including those affiliated to Iran, as well as the withdrawal of all foreign forces, including those belonging to the international coalition led by the United States. 

Therefore, this rapprochement is highly pragmatic. For many countries in the region Syria’s isolation has created problems within the country that spill over to its neighboring nations and impact the entire region. 

This is exemplified by the issue of drug trafficking. In a catastrophic economic situation, the Syrian regime has become the world's largest narco-state, tacitly supporting the trade of a highly addictive amphetamine known as Captagon. The Captagon business is causing massive social problems in neighboring countries, to the extent that Jordan ordered airstrikes in Syria to eliminate a well-known drug smuggler. In terms of economy, Arab countries and their companies are interested in participating in post-war reconstruction, investing in the country, and exploiting its resources. This reintegration represents a first step towards facilitating business, despite Western sanctions remaining the biggest obstacle. Regarding the issue of refugees, it is estimated that 5.5 millions Syrians are living in neighboring countries, which creates domestic political problems for these nations due to populist anti-refugee movements in a challenging economic context . The normalization of relations with Syria offers these Arab countries the opportunity to address numerous problems directly affecting them and usher in a new era in the Middle East. However, it will be necessary to come to an agreement on the implementation of this roadmap, something that is not a certainty.  

While the reintegration of Syria into the Arab League and its gradual rehabilitation in the Middle East's political landscape are underway, ending its global isolation is still far from being achieved, particularly in relation to Western countries and their sanctions. Despite the political and economic will of regional countries to see these sanctions lifted, especially the United States' CAESAR Act, which restricts many companies from doing business in Syria, this outcome seems unlikely given the current circumstances, as they do not wish to establish a precedent of impunity for war crimes. There is still a long way to go for Syria to regain a semblance of normalcy.